Inside the Fight

By Ethan Medel, 10/25/2025

UFC 321 is on the horizon and is shaping up to be a competitive card. With all the pressure from the Jon Jones debacle, Tom Aspinall is preparing to make his first title defense against skilled striker, Ciryl Gane. Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern meet again, this time for the vacant Women’s Strawweight championship. Jandiroba is looking to avenge her loss to Dern and continue her five-fight win streak. Dern is trying to repeat history and claim the Strawweight belt.

The card also has Umar Nurmagomedov, coming off his loss to Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili, facing a tough competitor in Mario Bautista, a rising Bantamweight who spoiled Patchy Mix’s debut in the UFC. Then Alexander Volkov is attempting to claim his long-awaited title shot by defeating Jailton Almeida, a Brazilian Heavyweight who’s only UFC comes at the hands of Curtis Blaydes. To start the main card, Aleksandar Rakic wants to end his three-fight losing streak against the undefeated Azamat Murzakanov.

Tom Aspinall © v Ciryl Gane (1)

Tom Aspinall Keys to Victory

• Chain wrestle: There are some obvious holes with Gane’s wrestling if we look at his previous title bouts against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. However, it is important to consider that Gane’s wrestling defense looked better against Volkov and he looked more comfortable. Aspinall needs to look to get single legs and wear down Gane early in the fight.
• Feint out Gane’s long strikes: Gane typically throws one strike after another instead of throwing combinations. Importantly, he tends to overextend at times or sit in place after his punches. Aspinall is a very skilled counter puncher and should look to draw out Gane’s attacks and take advantage.
• Make the fight dirty: Gane’s fights a very pretty style, meaning he is very technical and fights at methodical pace. Aspinall is good under pressure and can eat a good shot to give one. Aspinall’s quick success against Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes serve as examples of his ability to withstand a fire fight. Aspinall should look to get Gane to circle toward the cage and punish him in that middle to short range.

Ciryl Gane Keys to Victory

• Punch Combinations: I previously stated how Gane fights a pretty style that doesn’t see him throw a lot of combinations. That style is not going to be effective against Aspinall. Gane must push the pace and put it on Aspinall. Aspinall is susceptible to taking hits and Gane must make his hits count but looking for combinations rather than one big shot.
• Focus on Get Ups: In Gane’s last fight against Volkov, he attacked a lot of submissions that didn’t have any substance. That would be a mistake against Aspinall because Aspinall has very good jiu jitsu that will make Gane pay if he makes mistakes. Gane must focus on stand-up techniques and getting the fight back standing.
• Circle away from the right hand: Aspinall has knocked out his last three opponents with his thunderous right hand. Gane must prioritize moving toward his left hand and stay disciplined along the cage.

Prediction:

Other than Gane landing a big shot, I’m not sure where he can win this fight. I see Aspinall pushing the pace on him and landing that right hand that has made him successful before. If it makes it past the first two minutes or so, I can see Aspinall wrestling to wear Gane down, but I don’t think that will be necessary.

Prediction: Aspinall by Knockout

Virna Jandiroba(1) v Mackenzie Dern (5)

Virna Jandiroba’s Keys to Victory

• Stay aggressive: In Jandiroba’s first encounter with Dern, she didn’t generate much offense and was put on the back foot. Jandiroba does her best work by being the aggressor and setting the pace, this fight is no different. She must pressure Dern and use her level changes to delay Dern’s forward momentum.
• Get Dern against the cage: Jandiroba is much better at clinch takedowns than Dern and getting her against the cage will be crucial to limiting Dern’s success. Jandiroba needs to get in favorable positions when grappling and handling Dern against the cage wall increases her chances.
• Stay defensively responsible: Dern is very active from the bottom and can reverse position at any moment. Jandiroba must keep the pressure but if she does not have a dominant position like side control or full, the primary focus should be to keep Dern on her back and limit her chances of reversing.

Mackenzie Dern Keys to Victory

• Stay active in the bottom position:  Dern is at her best when she is creating offense from her back. If she gets taken down, look for her to have an open guard and use submissions to reverse position. Dern’s activity from the bottom position could sway judges even if she gets taken down.
• Combination flurries: Dern found a lot of success in the last fight between the two by rushing Jandiroba with flurries. Dern must keep Jandiroba at bay to reset the pace and the best way for Dern to do that is go back to what worked the first fight.
• Watch the stance switches: Jandiroba used stance switches a lot against Yan Xiaonan to keep the pressure. Also, Jandiroba only shot takedowns from an orthodox stance. Dern should use the stance switches to her advantage by firing body kicks when Jandiroba goes southpaw and being mindful of takedowns when she goes orthodox. The constant nature of Jandiroba’s stance switches makes it hard to time but once Dern gets the timing down, she has a major advantage.

Prediction:

I think Jandiroba has improved a lot from the first fight. She visibly looked uncomfortable against Dern because she refused to take Dern to the ground until later in the fight. I think Jandiroba attacks this fight aggressively and I don’t think Dern will do well under pressure. Jandiroba should win this fight if she keeps her feet moving forward, although, Jandiroba has never fought a five round fight so it will depend on her gas tank and if she has enough energy to keep the pressure.

Virna Jandiroba by Unanimous Decision

Umar Nurmagomedov (2) v Mario Bautista (9) Prediction:

This is a big step up in competition for Bautista, who looked good in his last fight against Patchy Mix. However, I think Umar is defensively sound and will make for a difficult fight for Bautista to handle. Nurmagomedov is a fantastic grappler and kickboxer, that can generate effective offense moving backwards and finding angles. I think Bautista has a tough time finding success in this fight.

Umar Nurmagomedov by Unanimous Decision

Alexander Volkov(2) v Jailton Almeida(5) Prediction:

Volkov’s last performances against Gane and Pavlovich were impressive. I think his range striking and mobility give Almeida issues early. I do think it will go to the ground briefly, but the veteran Volkov will get the fight back standing where he will shine against Almeida. Look for Volkov to overwhelm him and get the finish.

Alexander Volkov by Knockout

Aleksandar Rakic(7) v Azamat Murzakanov(10) Prediction:

Like Volkov, I think Rakic’s range gives Murzakanov issues. I think Rakic is defensively responsible, he will likely pick a part Murzakanov and shut down his offensive tries. Expect a high-level striking display from Rakic as he tries to get back into title contention.

Rakic by Unanimous Decision

UFC 321 bets

Disclaimer:

This section does not approve or want to influence irresponsible gambling. If you choose to gamble, gamble responsibly and understand the consequences that come with gambling. If you or a loved one struggle with a gambling addiction, call 1-800-522-4700 for the National Problem Gambling Hotline.

Safe bets:

These bets are relatively safe bets that are likely to hit. They might not offer the best payout by putting in a small parlay to maximize profit. However, I recommend not doing a parlay higher than 3 legs because there is likely to be a few upsets that ruin your bet. Here are the Picks:

• Valler Walker by Submission or KO (-140)
• Aleksandar Rakic ML (-115)
• Volkov and Almeida to not go the distance (-325)
• Virna Jandiroba ML (+125)
• Aspinall and Gane to end before end of round 2 (-130)
• Aspinall by KO/ Submission (-300)
• Nurmagomedov by points (-150)

Riskier Bets:

These bets are less likely to hit but have a much bigger profit. It is better to put in a smaller amount to reduce risk of losing mass amounts of money. Despite the unlikeliness I think these are reasonable bets.

• Volkov by KO (+275)
• Abdelwahab and Barnett to go the distance (+135)
• Nathaniel Wood by KO (+750)